The hottest long and short ABS may continue to dec

Long and short ABS may continue to decline

since the second half of the year, the ABS market has been booming, and after entering September, the price has hit a new high for the year. In mid November, the four consecutive months of rising volatility ended and prices began to callback. At present, the ABS price has been at a high level, and the market resistance is strong. The future market is intertwined with long and short, and the decline may continue

at present, the negative factors in the ABS market mainly include the following aspects:

first, the current ABS price is at a high level, which makes it difficult for downstream enterprises to pass on costs, and the strength of receiving goods is also obviously weak. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the willingness to buy is not strong. Toys, household appliances and cars are the major consumers of ABS. Especially after November, the traditional best sales season of "golden nine and silver ten" has passed. Air conditioners, LCD TVs, refrigerators and other household appliances are gradually returning to the off-season, and sales are becoming increasingly depressed. Statistics show that from January to October, the cumulative retail sales of domestic household appliances increased by 20.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was lower than 22.0% from January to September. After the state introduced a series of regulatory policies on real estate, housing sales continued to decline, and the demand for household appliances also fell in the short term. At present, the operating rate of the household appliance industry is only 50% - 60%. The toy industry has also entered the seasonal off-season, and the Christmas export ordering boom is nearing the end, which is difficult to support the ABS market

second, the change of RMB exchange rate has led to an increase in the cost of exchange, and the export profit space of automobile, toy and other industries is becoming smaller and smaller, making production and operation difficult. Just take the automobile as an example. Under the global price rise of raw materials such as steel, oil, aluminum and coal, the export profit margin of finished vehicles and parts has shrunk. In 2010, automobile exports accounted for only about 2.5% of domestic cars, and the main market for the export of self owned brand cars is still underdeveloped countries. In sharp contrast, in the first half of 2010, China's total import of auto parts reached 13.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 90% over the same period in 2009. The change of RMB exchange rate has reduced the cost of imported parts and components. Some enterprises with low localization rate have wantonly purchased imported products, and the competitiveness of domestic parts and components has decreased. To a certain extent, the change of RMB exchange rate has squeezed the profits and living space of some domestic enterprises with flexible packaging structure that have produced or are changing. At the same time, the international trade protection measures against Chinese auto parts enterprises, represented by the tire warranty case, have made it more difficult for Chinese auto parts enterprises to survive in the international market. These enterprises also have to bear the rising cost pressure caused by the change of RMB exchange rate. If price reduction measures are taken, the business interests of the enterprise will be damaged; If the price is not reduced, the product will face the risk of withdrawal from market competition

third, the trend of China's economic growth rate falling slightly is obvious. The blue book "analysis and forecast of China's economic situation in 2011" released on December 7 pointed out that from the perspective of quarterly economic operation, China's economic operation in 2010 will show a "high before low" situation. The economic growth slowed down, the market anxiety increased, and the wait-and-see atmosphere increased. Most businesses said that the quotation of qualified materials was loose and fell in fear. Most traders are not optimistic about the future market, the market trading is light, and the purchasing strength of ABS is limited. ABS enterprises have lowered the ex factory price of graphene

the positive factors affecting the ABS market are:

first, the supply side is tight. The operating rate of two lines of Shanghai Gaoqiao ABS remained at 60%, and one production line continued to be shut down for maintenance. Internationally, Japan's Toray plant with an annual output of 220000 tons continues to be shut down for maintenance. At present, the inventory of enterprises is tight, and the supply of domestic and foreign goods is still tight, which can curb the rapid decline of ABS product prices in the short term

secondly, a number of policies to stimulate the car market will officially end before the end of the year, or there may be a rush to buy the last bus. Statistics show that although the purchase tax reduction policy has been weakened this year, the promotional effect on the car market is still relatively obvious, and the market share of vehicles with displacement of 1.6 liters and below has increased by 5%. The purchase tax reduction policy will officially end at the end of December. It can be predicted that in the last month, the market may experience explosive growth, and may even advance next year's sales, which will be beneficial to the ABS market

thirdly, the upstream raw materials styrene, butadiene and acrylonitrile maintained high consolidation, which supported the ABS price to a certain extent. The upstream monomer continued to rise at a high level, fell back and consolidated with shock, which had a stabilizing effect on the butadiene market; Affected by the rising external market and the increasingly tense relationship between supply and demand, the acrylonitrile market quotation is strong, which supports the fundamentals of the ABS market

finally, the policy of returning home appliances to the countryside and replacing old ones with new ones has achieved gratifying results. As of November this year, the sales amount of home appliances in the country has reached 13.8 billion yuan. In the automotive sector alone, since the implementation of the old for new policy, more than 10000 new jobs have been created in the national sales, recycling and dismantling links, which has also driven the production and maintenance of automotive appliances, as well as the after-sales and other fields with good relations between China and Malaysia. At present, some auto processing industries are close to full capacity

at present, the ABS market is intertwined. Manufacturers have successively reduced their quotations, and the overall market demand has not been boosted, resulting in poor transactions. In addition, December is a seasonal off-season for demand, so the downstream demand is sluggish and difficult to improve. End users mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude, mainly buying on demand. From the perspective of market fundamentals, supply and demand will not change significantly in the short term, so the ABS market may continue the downward trend of prices, but under the influence of positive factors, there is limited room for price decline

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