Brief introduction to the one week market of the h

2022-08-13
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Brief introduction to the one week market of China Plastics spot LLDPE

this week, China's plastic price index is in a downward trend. Except for the one-day turn infrared, the rest fell significantly, from 1540.95 points on Monday to 1498.58 points on Friday, down 57.57 points from last week. The China Plastics spot index fell all the way this week, from 1481.45 at the beginning of the week to 1456.20 on Friday, and the transformation and upgrading of production equipment fell 27.36 points from the same period last week

I. review of upstream information:

crude oil futures rose and fell like a roller coaster this week. WTI closed at $131.93 per barrel on Friday, down $4.81 from last Friday; Brent was at $132.00 per barrel, down $4.09 from last Friday

the closing price of ethylene monomer in Asia this week was mixed, with Northeast Asia up $40/ton and Southeast Asia down $30/ton

II. Market Review:

the PE market fell as a whole this week. The high price in the early stage triggered the resistance and anxiety of downstream manufacturers and merchants. This week, the market in most parts of the country continued to cool down, and the phenomenon of low-cost selling arbitrage by merchants was obvious. The market quotation was generally upside down, and the actual transaction price could be negotiated. Since Wednesday, there have been many rumors about the price adjustment of petrochemical manufacturers in the market, and the businessmen are confused, and most of them wait and see

local conditions: this week, the good news of the market was exhausted. The PE market in North China fell into a downturn, the market price fell all the way, and the market hung upside down in a large area. At present, the mainstream price of LLDPE is 15000-15300 yuan/ton, which has become one of the topics studied by many researchers this week. It fell by 200-300 yuan/ton and hung upside down by 200-500 yuan/ton. Although it was customized according to the actual needs of customers, there was a short correction in futures/warehouse receipts on Monday and Tuesday, and the linear spot price improved slightly, but after the short correction, the market continued its downward trend. In the aftermarket, at present, most traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, but the pessimistic atmosphere is more obvious. This week, Sinopec has no specific measures for the time being. If Sinopec introduces measures to reduce factory output next week, the market will enter a sharp downward trend. If petrochemicals can insist on not reducing the ex factory price, the market may improve

after the market's continuous retreat last week, the East China market is still unable to adhere to this week. The market fell further driven by a variety of adverse factors. On Thursday, the price of LLDPE almost fell below 15000 yuan/ton, which is the bottom line we expected in the early stage. At present, the market is worse than we expected. If the petrochemical sector does have the intention to adjust the price, the contractor will undoubtedly become a ready-made victim, but this completely selfish approach seems to have never been seen before. This also makes the possibility of petrochemical price adjustment more confusing

this week, the South China market continued its decline last week. With the gradual start-up of Maoming Petrochemical plant, the good news of the market was digested, and traders actively dumped goods, with a significant decline. At present, the start-up of the downstream factories in South China is not ideal, and the prices of raw materials rose wildly in the early stage, causing greater cost pressure on the factories. After the market entered a declining state, the factories waited and waited, and used as they took it, leading to unsatisfactory market transactions. At present, the mainstream price of LLDPE in the market is 15300-15400 yuan/ton, and there are few linear sources of goods in the market. However, due to the poor downstream demand, the price still drops by about 100 yuan/ton, and the current market is upside down by 100-200 yuan/ton. In the future, at present, traders mostly wait and see the next trend of petrochemicals, and then adjust their sales strategies. This week, petrochemicals has not issued a price adjustment policy. This time, the market will follow the trend of petrochemicals

in terms of petrochemicals, the price of Sinopec/PetroChina is basically stable. Affected by the start-up of Jihua LLDPE unit, PetroChina northeast reduced the powder by 300 yuan/ton. In terms of devices, Maoming LDPE device was put into operation on June 19, and the low-voltage device was still shut down

III. trend forecast next week:

although the PE market is still supported by many bright spots, the high level of crude oil fluctuates, ethylene continues to rise, the market supply is limited, and some manufacturers have limited supply, etc., with the gradual increase of high cost pressure, some small and medium-sized downstream factories have stopped production and waited, traders have limited stock replenishment, speculative demand has weakened, and shipping intention has increased, resulting in a market adjustment situation. But now most of the businesses are selling early-stage inventory. Compared with the current factory price, although it is flat or upside down, the intermediate profit still exists objectively. With the consumption of supply, the strong support of ex factory price to the market will be reflected. Businesses will not lose money to ship goods, and will inevitably adjust their own quotations for all chassis components of bentler Automotive Industry Co., Ltd. and bentler Sigri. In other words, market adjustment is normal, and long-term bullish is certain

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