Brief introduction to the one week market of the h

2022-08-13
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A brief description of the one week market of China Plastics spot LLDPE (may 19-may 23)

this week, China's plastic price index first fell and then rose, closing at two Yin and three yang, rising from 1376.31 on Monday to 1390.77 on Friday, up 11.25 points from last week. The China Plastics spot index closed positive all the way this week, rising from 1323.76 at the beginning of the week to 1331.58 on Friday, up 8.53 points from the same period last week

I. review of upstream information:

crude oil futures rose and fell this week, with normal adjustment. At the close of trading on Friday, WTI was at $130.81/barrel, up $6.69 from last Friday; Brent was at $130.51/barrel, up $7.88 from last Friday

the closing price of ethylene monomer was stable this week

II. Market Review:

international crude oil has reached new highs, the high level of ethylene monomer has been strong, the PE market has been supported, and the market decline has resistance. However, petrochemical manufacturers rose too fast in the early stage. The market needs time to digest the supply, and the downstream needs time to adjust their mentality. This week, the PE market is in a period of normal adjustment, and the upward trend is suspended. In general, natus only needs to use the existing molds and make minor modifications in production. This week, the PE market is in a high consolidation period

local conditions: the overall atmosphere of the North China market this week was poor, and it was basically in a state of high decline. Since last weekend, prices have continued to fall, and the downstream receiving capacity is not strong. At present, the rising intention of petrochemical is not obvious. Some traders began to stock up in the early stage, resulting in a small decline in market prices. Of course, some traders are still bullish in the future, and there are not many shipments. From the weekend to Monday, the price of LLDPE in North China fell by about 100 yuan/ton from 14200 yuan/ton to 14050 yuan/ton, of which Qilu TIANLIAN linear performance was the worst, and the price fell by a large margin. Due to the shutdown and overhaul at the end of the month, the price of Zhongyuan Petrochemical was relatively strong, and it remained at 14100-14200 yuan/ton this week. At the same time, it increased the proportion of nickel and decreased the use of tons of cobalt. On the whole, after the overhaul of Zhongyuan began at the end of the month, the supply of the whole North China was slightly tight, and there were more opportunities for LLDPE to rise next month. In the future, the market has been in a period of decline since last week, and the price of raw materials has fallen slightly from the high price in the early stage. Some traders believe that the market has fallen by about the same extent, so there is a certain possibility of rise in the market next week

the East China market remained stable on the whole this week, with a small part of it falling back. Because the rise of petrochemicals ended before, the market price was high, the demand was under heavy pressure, and the transaction was sluggish. In the absence of more driving factors, the market is temporarily in the adjustment stage after the rise, and the atmosphere is unusually quiet. In terms of traders, although most of them still have bullish confidence in the future market, their early positions occupy more funds, and some small and medium-sized traders have difficulties in weekly trading. They began to carry out arbitrage at relatively low prices, but the transaction has not changed much. The price of imported LLDPE was relatively high before, and it first fell slightly, but the supply of traders was small, and it remained at a high level. At present, the price of high-end brands such as 218w and 1002kw is 14600 yuan/ton, and the transaction is slightly lower. Other brands are generally around 13500 yuan/ton. In terms of domestic LLDPE, the price of Zhongyuan 7050 has always remained at the level of 14500 yuan/ton, while 7042 has fallen from the level of 14500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction is 14350 yuan/ton. A peaceful situation has emerged in Nanjing

this week, the PE market in South China is dominated by high-level decline, the price of raw materials is high, the enthusiasm of downstream factories to receive goods is not high, coupled with Petrochemical's recent rising intention is not obvious, and traders are mainly shipping, resulting in a decline in market prices, which is relatively normal. The price of LLDPE fell slightly by about 100 yuan/ton, and the price fell from 13700 yuan/ton to 13550-13600 yuan/ton. Traders' mentality was once depressed and they lacked confidence in the future market. However, on Wednesday, Guangzhou Petrochemical LLDPE shut down, and on Thursday, the international crude oil rose by more than $134/ton, restoring traders' confidence. On Thursday, the market recovered, and the LLDPE quotation rose again by 100 yuan/ton, excluding tax. Do you know the requirements and installation details for installing universal experimental machine fixtures? Reported to change fatigue testing machine is a common machine equipment of 13700 yuan/ton. Traders' mentality has recovered, but the downstream transaction situation has not been significantly improved. I wonder whether the LLDPE rise will last for a long time. In the future, this LLDPE rise was caused by the shutdown of Guangzhou Petrochemical LLDPE unit. It is not clear how long the shutdown will take. Therefore, in the short term, due to tight supply and speculation by traders, the LLDPE price will maintain a high price and have a further upward trend

in terms of petrochemicals, affected by cost pressure, petrochemical manufacturers increased their ex factory prices significantly in the early stage, and the market reaction increased too fast. It still takes time for the downstream to adapt and accept. This week, the ex factory price of Sinopec was basically stable, and the ex factory price of Sinopec Beijing increased by 100 yuan/ton. PetroChina (17.48, -0.18, -1.02%, bar) slightly adjusted some out of stock brands in some regions, with a range of yuan/ton. In terms of devices, Jilin Petrochemical/Fushun Petrochemical PE device has been shut down for maintenance since May 14, and it is planned to be overhauled for one month. The LLDPE unit of Guangzhou Petrochemical suddenly broke down yesterday, and the start-up date is to be determined

III. trend forecast next week:

crude oil futures hit a new high, the high level of ethylene monomer is strong, and the PE market is affected by costs, with great downward resistance. Some petrochemical overhauls are in progress, and petrochemical manufacturers have no inventory sales pressure. In addition, in June, the external market gradually introduced new offers, and prices generally rose, so that there were fewer negative factors in the domestic PE market, making it difficult for the market to decline. On the other hand, the market price is high, and the downstream manufacturers have not fully accepted it. It still needs time to adjust their mentality, so it is expected that the PE market will continue to consolidate next week. However, it cannot be ruled out that petrochemical manufacturers introduced new prices in June, resulting in a slight upward trend in the market

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